Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.275199 0.317974 0.364565 0.418994 0.480749 0.548548 0.628529
2025-07-06 0.202692 0.255869 0.318469 0.397293 0.493560 0.606953 0.750256
2025-07-13 0.162501 0.222715 0.298862 0.401505 0.535426 0.703305 0.928636
2025-07-20 0.127652 0.189681 0.273794 0.394867 0.563073 0.786632 1.103976
2025-07-27 0.104003 0.167101 0.258588 0.398724 0.605209 0.894912 1.327800
2025-08-03 0.085959 0.149015 0.246544 0.405065 0.651963 1.016321 1.587219
2025-08-10 0.066593 0.124801 0.220944 0.386823 0.659838 1.083292 1.778240
2025-08-17 0.050745 0.102852 0.194745 0.362904 0.654969 1.130266 1.945671
2025-08-24 0.040672 0.088840 0.179220 0.353980 0.673035 1.215667 2.184971
2025-08-31 0.032734 0.076976 0.165182 0.345088 0.689623 1.300677 2.434608
2025-09-07 0.027957 0.070408 0.159909 0.351571 0.734841 1.440639 2.795636
2025-09-14 0.022170 0.060097 0.144957 0.336256 0.736473 1.502768 3.026258
2025-09-21 0.017828 0.052132 0.133692 0.327354 0.751273 1.595010 3.331414
2025-09-28 0.014225 0.044915 0.122477 0.316409 0.760286 1.677854 3.630648
2025-10-05 0.012332 0.041698 0.120028 0.324946 0.812501 1.853824 4.134677
2025-10-12 0.010290 0.037391 0.113856 0.323464 0.842367 1.988084 4.571705
2025-10-19 0.008900 0.034607 0.111047 0.329861 0.891673 2.170342 5.131018
2025-10-26 0.007768 0.032274 0.108945 0.337740 0.945981 2.370722 5.752945
2025-11-02 0.006214 0.027863 0.099651 0.324211 0.945010 2.446660 6.111694
2025-11-09 0.004839 0.023510 0.089284 0.305283 0.926796 2.480082 6.378919
2025-11-16 0.003985 0.020839 0.083562 0.298755 0.940476 2.591417 6.839212
2025-11-23 0.003279 0.018466 0.078156 0.291975 0.952319 2.699789 7.305103
2025-11-30 0.002887 0.017336 0.076876 0.298208 1.002449 2.911186 8.044389